SACRAMENTO – State Sen. Jim Brulte on Tuesday endorsed Arnold Schwarzenegger for governor, saying the moderate Republican is qualified to lead the state’s recovery and is the only GOP candidate capable of beating Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, whom he labeled as more dangerous to California’s future than Gov. Gray Davis.

Brulte, state Senate minority leader from Rancho Cucamonga, did not specifically call on Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom McClintock to exit the recall campaign. But he said his Senate colleague lacks the support of enough Democratic and independent voters to win.

Brulte — who successfully blocked Democrats from including tax increases in this year’s state budget despite its record deficit — criticized McClintock for attacking Schwarzenegger, saying his fellow conservative’s actions could help elect Bustamante if Davis is recalled on Oct. 7.

“I’m a conservative. But conservatism is not a suicide pact, and electing Cruz Bustamante would be counterproductive to the long-term interests of California,” Brulte said during a news conference by telephone from his Inland Valley home.

Brulte’s announcement came exactly two weeks before the unprecedented recall election and one day before Schwarzenegger and McClintock are scheduled to debate for the first time.

Both are set to face off this evening in Sacramento, along with Bustamante, Green Party candidate Peter Camejo and independent Arianna Huffington.

Brulte served as co-chairman of McClintock’s 2002 campaign for state controller and said the career legislator has a bright political future. But with less than 14 days to go until the election, Brulte said the most recent public opinion polls prove that leap-frogging over Bustamante and Schwarzenegger to win in Democrat-leaning California is highly unlikely.

McClintock campaign adviser John Stoos disagreed and brushed off Brulte’s contention that the senator could help elect Bustamante — or even turn Republicans off to the recall and help secure Davis’ survival.

“We looked at support from our volunteers and donors, which was overwhelming, and once the field was set, we took a benchmark poll. We saw a clear path to victory, because you don’t run a race to come in second,” Stoos said.

Stoos is correct in noting that McClintock has risen in the polls while Schwarzenegger has been relatively flat. But Brulte highlighted the senator’s deficiency with nonpartisan voters, a voting block political analysts agree Republicans need to overcome the almost 9-percentage-point lead the Democratic Party holds among registered voters.

In a Public Policy Institute of California survey released Sunday, Bustamante and Schwarzenegger are in a statistical dead-heat for the lead among all likely voters, with 28 percent and 26 percent, respectively. McClintock follows with 14 percent, but has the support of only 12 percent of likely independent voters.

Bustamante and Schwarzenegger, meanwhile, received 24 percent and 21 percent of the likely nonpartisan vote in the PPIC poll.

“Arnold Schwarzenegger is the only Republican that can beat Cruz Bustamante and ensure that, if the voters recall Gray Davis, he is replaced with a governor who wants to take the state in a different direction,” Brulte said.

Brulte is so concerned about a Bustamante victory, he indicated he would rather Davis beat the recall and remain in office than see the lieutenant governor take his place.

But that fear notwithstanding, Brulte is confident, if not outright enthusiastic, that Schwarzenegger’s success in films, real-estate development and philanthropy — and the fact that the actor-turned-politician made his first million in business before he was a movie star — will translate into a record of positive accomplishment in Sacramento.

Schwarzenegger, meanwhile, said Tuesday he will win the election whether McClintock drops out or not, even though he acknowledged victory would be easier if he did not have to compete against another Republican.