SACRAMENTO (AP) _ A late-hour television strategy by Gov. Gray Davis’ to paint Arnold Schwarzenegger as a cowardly candidate who won’t debate “the governor he wants to replace” reveals the true telltale mark of a losing campaign, political analysts said Monday.

Front-runners and incumbents typically avoid debates, analysts said, noting Davis used that strategy in his previous campaign. Now, they view Davis’ challenge to Schwarzenegger as a “roll of the dice” ploy for survival.

Historically, trailing candidates from Democrat George McGovern in the 1972 presidential race to Republican Bill Simon in last year’s California gubernatorial campaign have mounted fierce, but typically unsuccessful campaigns, to make their opponents debate them.

“When an incumbent challenges the challenger, that’s a pretty good sign the incumbent knows he’s behind,” said political debating expert David J. Lanoue. “It’s quite a safe bet if he was running ahead on the recall polls, he would be operating entirely above the fray.”

Davis said Monday, “I don’t know what Mr. Schwarzenegger is afraid of. I mean I never participated in a Mr. Universe contest. I weigh maybe 165 pounds on a good day. I’m ready to go to him toe-to-toe but he seems to be the one on the run.”

But political analysts cited a new poll showing that Schwarzenegger is likely to be elected governor next Tuesday and said Schwarzenegger has nothing to gain by debating Davis. They claimed it would only raise the unpopular governor’s stature in the campaign’s final days.

“It’s to his benefit to have Davis considered a dead man walking,” said Lanoue, who heads the University of Alabama political science department. “At this point his debate could only resuscitate Davis and harm himself.”

Schwarzenegger spokesman Rob Stutzman said Monday the actor candidate has no intention of debating Davis.

“Gray Davis can go beg for mercy directly to the California voters. We’re not going to become part of his theater.” Stutzman said. “We will not share a stage with Gray Davis in his last week of public life.”

That sentiment echoes the 1972 strategy by President Richard Nixon that successfully ignored repeated television advertisements by McGovern seeking a debate. In 1992, incumbent president George Bush also tried _ but unsuccessfully _ to bar third-party candidate Ross Perot from a presidential debate, accurately fearing it would heighten Perot’s stature and cost Bush votes.

The Davis campaign stepped up its challenge to Republican Schwarzenegger on Sunday with new 15-second television advertisements running statewide this week and attacking the challenger for “ducking tough issues” and refusing to debate. CNN’s “Larry King Live” has offered to moderate a debate between the two, but only Davis has accepted the invitation.

Political communications expert Dan Hallin said debate politics is about reaping the best advantage from debating or not debating _ and trying to make the non-debater look bad. Schwarzenegger, especially, has walked a delicate line in the campaign, avoiding all debates except a Sept. 24 event. Leading candidates strongly criticized his earlier absences as proof he couldn’t hold his own in a debate on complicated state issues.

“Both campaigns have lots and lots of advisers and are calculating this out very carefully,” said Hallin, a University of California, San Diego professor.

Davis’ insistence on a debate this week is the polar opposite of his strategy last year, when he agreed to only one debate with businessman Simon, and skipped another, leaving Simon to debate Green Party candidate Peter Camejo in an obscure forum with little press coverage. Similarly, in the 1998 campaign, Davis stopped debating his Republican challenger Dan Lungren, when polls gave Davis a commanding edge.

Simon campaign adviser Sal Russo recognized the Davis strategy Monday, saying that losing candidates _ like Simon last year _ always want to debate, while winners don’t and “don’t pay much of a price.”